Dovi Geretz
Release
The holiday travel season is one of the most expensive times of year to get away, and travelers are once again facing higher costs across the board. From airfare and hotel rooms to rental cars and baggage fees, the total price of a holiday trip can add up quickly. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as “vacation inflation. Travelers are feeling the combined impact of strong seasonal demand, fluctuating airfare, operating costs and limited availability. 
For anyone planning to fly for Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hannukah, New Year’s, etc., knowing when to book (and how to recognize a good deal) can make a meaningful difference. As the Chief Technology Officer at SlickTrip (a real-time flight price alert platform), I’ve seen firsthand how quickly airfare can change and how important it is for travelers to recognize the right time to book. Here is what every traveler should keep in mind when planning their holiday travel.
What Is Driving “Vacation Inflation”?
One of the biggest factors behind higher holiday travel costs is simple supply and demand. The holidays are among the busiest travel periods of the year, with millions of people trying to reach family gatherings, take vacations, or return home from college and work. When demand rises and the number of available seats is limited, airlines have less incentive to discount their remaining inventory, which can push fares higher.
Tighter flight capacity can add to that pressure. Airlines have been scaling back or adjusting flight schedules in response to higher fuel and operating costs, which can mean fewer seats are available on certain routes. When there is less supply to meet strong demand, fares can rise. Reduced competition can have a similar effect. The shutdown of Spirit Airlines removed a major ultra-low-cost competitor from many markets, reducing price competition on some routes and giving other carriers more room to charge higher fares.
Airlines also use dynamic pricing, meaning ticket prices can change frequently based on demand, remaining seat inventory, competition and the popularity of a particular route. As lower-priced fare classes sell out, travelers may see higher prices for the same flight. Two travelers sitting next to each other may have paid very different prices because they booked at different times.
Fuel and other operating costs are another factor. Airlines face significant expenses for jet fuel, labor, aircraft maintenance, airport fees and other operations, and those costs can influence the prices consumers ultimately pay. Hotels and rental-car companies face similar pressures from staffing costs, demand and local availability.
And airfare is only one piece of the vacation budget. Travelers may also be paying more for hotels, rental cars, meals, parking, baggage and other trip expenses. As a result, even relatively modest increases across several categories can make a holiday trip feel significantly more expensive overall.
What Are the Signs a Flight Price Could Go Up?
There is no foolproof way to predict exactly when an airfare will increase, but there are several signals that travelers should take seriously. One is a pattern of repeated price increases. If you’ve been tracking a particular flight and the fare has climbed several times in a short period, that may indicate that lower-priced fare inventory is disappearing. Waiting for the price to return to its previous level could be a gamble.
Another warning sign is limited availability on your preferred itinerary. If you need a nonstop flight, a particular departure time, or a specific travel date, your options may become increasingly limited as the holiday approaches. Even if another flight becomes cheaper, it may not have the schedule or convenience you need.
Peak travel dates deserve particular attention. Flights immediately before Thanksgiving, around Christmas, and around New Year’s can be especially competitive. Travelers who have little flexibility may want to prioritize securing an acceptable fare rather than waiting indefinitely for a better one. A good rule is to establish a price you’re comfortable paying before you start shopping. If you find a fare that fits your budget and the itinerary meets your needs, booking can be preferable to holding out for a small additional discount that may never materialize.
Most importantly, don’t assume that waiting until the last minute will automatically result in a deal. While occasional last-minute bargains exist, holiday travel is not the time to count on them. Waiting can leave travelers with higher fares, fewer flight choices and less convenient schedules.
How Can Travelers Keep Holiday Travel Costs Down?
Flexibility is one of the most valuable tools for reducing holiday travel expenses. If possible, compare several departure and return dates rather than searching for only one specific itinerary. Traveling a day earlier or later can sometimes make a significant difference. Flight times can matter, too. Travelers willing to fly very early in the morning or later at night may find more affordable options than those looking exclusively for convenient midday departures.
Always Compare
It can also be worthwhile to compare nearby airports. Depending on where you live and where you’re going, a different airport may offer more competition or better fares. Just make sure to calculate the cost and time required to get to and from the alternative airport. A cheaper ticket isn’t necessarily a better deal if it requires expensive transportation or additional lodging.
Travelers should also compare the total cost of an itinerary rather than looking only at the advertised airfare. Baggage charges, seat-selection fees, airport transportation and other extras can quickly change the final price. A slightly more expensive ticket with fewer additional fees could ultimately be the better value.
Price Alerts are Key
Setting up airfare alerts can also make the process easier. Instead of repeatedly checking the same route throughout the day, travelers can monitor price changes on a platform like SlickTrip and get a better sense of the normal fare range. This makes it easier to recognize when a price is genuinely attractive.
Look Into Travel Rewards
For those who have them, travel rewards can provide another way to offset holiday costs. Points and miles may be particularly valuable when cash fares are elevated, although travelers should compare the value of using rewards with the option of paying cash.
Finally, consider whether every aspect of the trip needs to happen during the busiest travel period. Extending a visit by a day or two, traveling before the holiday rush, or returning after peak demand has passed may provide opportunities for savings.
Plan Ahead and Stay Flexible!
The bottom line: there is no single magic date or booking day that guarantees the cheapest holiday airfare. Instead, successful holiday travelers combine early planning with flexibility and a willingness to recognize a good fare when they see one. By monitoring prices, considering alternative dates and airports, and looking at the total cost of the trip, travelers can reduce the impact of vacation inflation (and spend less time worrying about airfare and more time enjoying the holidays).